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Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith Prediction

Davey Grant
Davey Grant
"Dangerous"
18-8
Bantamweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score57
Elijah Smith
Elijah Smith
"Swift"
10-1

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Elijah Smith
Elijah Smith by Decision
Elijah Smith 57% to win · Medium confidence
Davey Grant
42.9%
Elijah Smith
57.1%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Elijah Smith holds the momentum and youth advantage, entering this bout on a five-fight win streak. While Davey Grant is the far more experienced veteran, his inconsistent form and defensive lapses give Smith the stylistic edge to dictate the pace and secure a victory."

What Everyone Misses

The disparity in physical prime and output efficiency; at 40 years old, Grant’s striking defense of 54% is increasingly vulnerable to Smith’s ability to initiate grappling exchanges at a much higher frequency (2.98 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Grant's 0.95).

FightIQ Blog

Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith Prediction and Pick

Elijah Smith earns a hard fought decision victory over the veteran Davey Grant at UFC Fight Night. This battle of bantamweights tests the composure of a rising prospect against the experience of a 40 year old fighter.

Why FightIQ Likes Smith

1
Striking

Grant averages 5.58 sig-strikes/min at 45% accuracy.

2
Grappling

Smith averages 1.12 sub-attempts/15 min.

3
Wrestling

Smith averages 2.98 takedowns/15 min.

Expert Breakdown

•Grant averages 5.58 sig-strikes/min at 45% accuracy.
•Smith averages 4.18 sig-strikes/min at 48% accuracy.
•Smith averages 1.12 sub-attempts/15 min.
•Grant averages 0.2 sub-attempts/15 min.
•Smith averages 2.98 takedowns/15 min.
•Grant holds 65% takedown defense against 38% accuracy.
•Grant has frequently gone to the scorecards in his recent UFC appearances.
•Smith has maintained high output across three-round bouts.
•Grant has a career finish rate of 44%.
•Smith has not been finished in his career.
•Grant has 15 UFC appearances.
•Smith has 3 UFC appearances.
•Smith is on a 5-fight winning streak.
•Grant has been trading wins and losses in his last 5 bouts.

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Davey Grant has the output edge.

Who drives it

Davey Grant

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Davey Grant 5.58/min vs Elijah Smith 4.18/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 88%Clinch 1%Ground 11%

Davey Grant's path

Out-volume Elijah Smith at distance; power on the counter if Elijah Smith walks in.

Elijah Smith's path

Out-volume Davey Grant at distance; power on the counter if Davey Grant walks in.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +0.72" reach disadvantage -0.6Opponent momentum edge -0.5Style matchup edge +1.6Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -1.8

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Davey Grant
  • Elijah Smith

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.