UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov

Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis Prediction

Nurullo Aliev
Nurullo Aliev
"Tajik Eagle"
12-0
-145
Lightweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score59
Mike Davis
Mike Davis
"Beast Boy"
12-3
+125

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Mike Davis
Mike Davis by KO/TKO (R1)
Mike Davis 58% to win · Medium confidence
Nurullo Aliev
42%
Mike Davis
58%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Low

"Mike Davis holds a significant edge in output and striking efficiency against a Nurullo Aliev who relies heavily on grinding out decisions. While Aliev is undefeated, he lacks the finishing threat to deter a veteran like Davis, who consistently operates at a higher striking pace."

What Everyone Misses

The volume gap; Aliev's reliance on 2.72 sig strikes/min is dangerously low compared to Davis's 4.73, suggesting Aliev will struggle to keep pace if he cannot force a stagnant wrestling match.

Why FightIQ Likes Davis

1
Striking

Davis: 4.73 sig str/min, 56.13% accuracy

2
Grappling

Davis: 0.75 sub att/15 min

3
Wrestling

Aliev: 2.12 TD/15 min, 80% TD defense

Expert Breakdown

•Davis: 4.73 sig str/min, 56.13% accuracy
•Aliev: 2.72 sig str/min, 56.73% accuracy
•Davis: 0.75 sub att/15 min
•Aliev: 0.3 sub att/15 min
•Aliev: 2.12 TD/15 min, 80% TD defense
•Davis: 2.4 TD/15 min, 82.35% TD defense
•Aliev: 12:24 average fight time
•Davis: High intensity output throughout rounds
•Aliev: 0 losses
•Davis: 3 losses (1 submission, 2 decisions)
•Davis: Wins over Natan Levy, Viacheslav Borshchev
•Aliev: Wins over Joe Solecki, Rafael Alves
•Aliev: 11-0 undefeated streak
•Davis: Win over Mitch Ramirez

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Mike Davis has the output edge.

Who drives it

Mike Davis

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Nurullo Aliev 2.72/min vs Mike Davis 4.73/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 84%Clinch 2%Ground 14%

Nurullo Aliev's path

Out-volume Mike Davis at distance; power on the counter if Mike Davis walks in.

Mike Davis's path

Out-volume Nurullo Aliev at distance; 4 knockdowns/min if Nurullo Aliev walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -1.1Opponent power vs chin edge -1.2Momentum edge +0.6Opponent style edge -2.4Age/decline edge +0.9

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Nurullo Aliev
  • Mike Davis

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.