UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov

Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov Prediction

Magomed Ankalaev
Magomed Ankalaev
21-2-1
-550
Light Heavyweight
VS
5 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score78
Bogdan Guskov
Bogdan Guskov
"Czarevitch"
18-3-1
+400

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Magomed Ankalaev
Magomed Ankalaev by Decision
Magomed Ankalaev 65% to win · Medium confidence
Magomed Ankalaev
65%
Bogdan Guskov
35%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Ankalaev's superior UFC experience and elite takedown defense provide a significant advantage. While Guskov is a dangerous power puncher, Ankalaev's ability to control the clinch and pacing should negate much of Guskov's threat, leading to a calculated win."

What Everyone Misses

Bogdan Guskov's statistical dominance in his recent wins is against significantly lower-tier UFC competition compared to the consistent, high-level opposition Magomed Ankalaev has faced and overcome.

Why FightIQ Likes Ankalaev

1
Striking

Ankalaev: 3.65 sig strikes/min, 61.44% accuracy, 56% defense

2
Grappling

Ankalaev: 0.79 takedowns/15 min, 22.22% accuracy, 88% TD defense

3
Wrestling

Ankalaev: 0.79 takedowns/15 min, 22.22% accuracy

Expert Breakdown

•Ankalaev: 3.65 sig strikes/min, 61.44% accuracy, 56% defense
•Guskov: 4.57 sig strikes/min, 62.41% accuracy, 50% defense
•Ankalaev: 0.79 takedowns/15 min, 22.22% accuracy, 88% TD defense
•Guskov: 0.69 sub attempts/15 min, 50% TD defense
•Ankalaev: 0.79 takedowns/15 min, 22.22% accuracy
•Guskov: 0 takedowns/15 min, 0% accuracy
•Ankalaev: Avg fight time 11:49
•Guskov: Avg fight time 15:00
•Ankalaev: Lost 1 KO loss
•Guskov: Lost 1 KO loss, 1 Submission loss, 1 Decision loss
•Ankalaev: 14-3 UFC record (vs. Dominick Reyes, Ion Cutelaba, Corey Anderson, Volkan Oezdemir, Aleksandar Rakic, Johnny Walker, Nikita Krylov, Anthony Smith, Corey Anderson, Thiago Santos, Paul Craig, Jan Blachowicz, Alex Pereira)
•Guskov: 5-1 UFC record (vs. Jimmy Crute, Tramain Ford, Codie Hunsaker, Alim Makhmudov, Maxim Futin, Anton Turkalj, Nikita Krylov, Jan Blachowicz)
•Ankalaev: Won 2 of last 3 (W vs. Aleksandar Rakić, W vs. Johnny Walker)
•Guskov: 2-fight win streak (W vs. Nikita Krylov, W vs. Nikita Krylov)

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Bogdan Guskov has the output edge.

Who drives it

Bogdan Guskov

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Magomed Ankalaev 3.65/min vs Bogdan Guskov 4.57/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%

Magomed Ankalaev's path

Out-volume Bogdan Guskov at distance; 0.56 knockdowns/min if Bogdan Guskov walks in.

Bogdan Guskov's path

Out-volume Magomed Ankalaev at distance; power on the counter if Magomed Ankalaev walks in.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +3Opponent momentum edge -0.4Opponent style edge -2.4Opponent age/decline edge -0.3Ring rust edge +0.6

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Magomed Ankalaev
  • Bogdan Guskov

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.