UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan Prediction

Niko Price
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
16-11
Welterweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score71
Leon Shahbazyan
Leon Shahbazyan
"S.O.G."
12-5

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Leon Shahbazyan
Leon Shahbazyan by Submission (R1)
Leon Shahbazyan 56% to win · Low confidence
Niko Price
43.8%
Leon Shahbazyan
56.2%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
High

"This is a volatile matchup between two fighters with significant defensive liabilities and limited sample sizes in the UFC. While Niko Price is a proven UFC veteran, his four-fight losing streak and inability to secure finishes outweigh his experience, favoring the explosive finishing potential of Shahbazyan in a short-duration contest."

What Everyone Misses

The fight will likely be over before Price can leverage his greater UFC experience or output, as Shahbazyan's 100% finish rate and Price's poor defense create a high-variance environment where the first person to initiate grappling wins instantly.

Why FightIQ Likes Shahbazyan

1
Striking

Shahbazyan: 6.1 sig strikes/min vs 52% accuracy

2
Grappling

Shahbazyan: 100% win rate via submissions

3
Momentum

Price: 4-fight losing streak

Expert Breakdown

•Shahbazyan: 6.1 sig strikes/min vs 52% accuracy
•Price: 5.11 sig strikes/min vs 48% accuracy
•Shahbazyan defense: 33% vs Price defense: 48%
•Shahbazyan: 100% win rate via submissions
•Price: Career 0% submission win rate
•Price: Multiple recent losses by submission
•Price: 1.06 takedowns/15
•Shahbazyan: 1.41 takedowns/15
•TD accuracy: Price 30% vs Shahbazyan 0%
•Price avg fight time: 8:07
•Shahbazyan avg fight time: 5:20
•Price: 1 career loss via KO
•Shahbazyan: 3 career losses via KO
•Price: 5 UFC fights
•Shahbazyan: 1 UFC fight
•Price: 4-fight losing streak
•Shahbazyan: Loss to Levan Chokheli

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Leon Shahbazyan has the output edge.

Who drives it

Leon Shahbazyan

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Niko Price 5.11/min vs Leon Shahbazyan 6.1/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 88%Clinch 0%Ground 12%

Niko Price's path

Out-volume Leon Shahbazyan at distance; 0.44 knockdowns/min if Leon Shahbazyan walks in.

Leon Shahbazyan's path

Out-volume Niko Price at distance; 1.41 knockdowns/min if Niko Price walks in.

What moved the number

Power vs chin edge +1.1Opponent style edge -1.9Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -1.5

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD Accuracy
  • Niko Price
  • Leon Shahbazyan

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): TD Defense, Finish Rate.