UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi Prediction

Malcolm Wellmaker
Malcolm Wellmaker
"The Machine"
10-2
Bantamweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score78
Otari Tanzilovi
Otari Tanzilovi
10-2

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Malcolm Wellmaker
Malcolm Wellmaker by Decision
Malcolm Wellmaker 51% to win · Low confidence (coin flip)
Malcolm Wellmaker
51%
Otari Tanzilovi
49%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Coin Flip
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"The rating gap is only 1 points, this is a toss-up, not a real edge. Confidence is low, this is a coin-flip fight. The win probabilities favor Malcolm Wellmaker (51%), and the pick follows the numbers."

What Everyone Misses

Casual fans will fixate on Malcolm Wellmaker's early career KO power, ignoring that he has shown zero defensive grappling resistance in the UFC, while Tanzilovi’s 86% takedown defense ensures he can force Wellmaker to fight at his own pace.

Executive Summary

The win probabilities favor Malcolm Wellmaker (51%), and the pick follows the numbers.

Why FightIQ Likes Wellmaker

1
Striking

Wellmaker: 4.58 sig-strikes/min, 55% accuracy

Expert Breakdown

•Wellmaker: 4.58 sig-strikes/min, 55% accuracy
•Tanzilovi: 4.2 sig-strikes/min, 69% accuracy
•Wellmaker: 0 sub-attempts/15
•Tanzilovi: 0 sub-attempts/15
•Wellmaker: 47% takedown defense
•Tanzilovi: 4.5 takedowns/15, 86% takedown defense
•Wellmaker: 6:15 avg fight time
•Tanzilovi: 15:00 avg fight time
•Wellmaker: 0 KO losses
•Tanzilovi: 0 KO losses
•Wellmaker: 0-2 UFC (Losses: Diaz, Ewing)
•Tanzilovi: 0-2 UFC (Losses: Collins, Musasa)
•Wellmaker: 2-fight losing streak
•Tanzilovi: Coming off a loss

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Malcolm Wellmaker has the output edge.

Who drives it

Malcolm Wellmaker

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Malcolm Wellmaker 4.58/min vs Otari Tanzilovi 4.2/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 92%Clinch 1%Ground 7%

Malcolm Wellmaker's path

Out-volume Otari Tanzilovi at distance; 1.44 knockdowns/min if Otari Tanzilovi walks in.

Otari Tanzilovi's path

Out-volume Malcolm Wellmaker at distance; power on the counter if Malcolm Wellmaker walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -3.2Style matchup edge +1.9Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -1.2

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Malcolm Wellmaker
  • Otari Tanzilovi

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.