UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Ketlen Souza vs Loopy Godinez Prediction

Ketlen Souza
Ketlen Souza
"Esquentadinha"
17-6
Women's Strawweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score54
Loopy Godinez
Loopy Godinez
14-6

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Ketlen Souza
Ketlen Souza by Decision
Ketlen Souza 59% to win · Low confidence (coin flip)
Ketlen Souza
69.6%
Loopy Godinez
30.4%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Coin Flip
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"The rating gap is only 1 points, this is a toss-up, not a real edge. Confidence is low, this is a coin-flip fight. Ketlen Souza holds a significant advantage in experience and proven results within the UFC, demonstrating a much higher finish rate and tactical versatility. While Loopy Godinez brings a strong wrestling base, her lack of professional finishing ability and limited UFC sample size make it difficult to bet against Souza's momentum and striking efficiency."

What Everyone Misses

Casual observers focus on Godinez's raw wrestling output, but fail to notice that Souza's ability to maintain a 57% striking accuracy while transitioning between offensive phases creates a volume deficit that Godinez cannot bridge without reliable finishing threats.

Executive Summary

Ketlen Souza holds a significant advantage in experience and proven results within the UFC, demonstrating a much higher finish rate and tactical versatility. While Loopy Godinez brings a strong wrestling base, her lack of professional finishing ability and limited UFC sample size make it difficult to bet against Souza's momentum and striking efficiency.

Why FightIQ Likes Souza

1
Striking

Souza: 4.11 sig. strikes/min at 57% accuracy

2
Durability

Souza: 4-3 UFC record

3
Experience

Souza: 7 UFC appearances

Expert Breakdown

•Souza: 4.11 sig. strikes/min at 57% accuracy
•Godinez: 4.43 sig. strikes/min at 49% accuracy
•Souza: 0.23 submission attempts/15 minutes
•Godinez: 0.82 submission attempts/15 minutes
•Godinez: 2.99 takedowns/15 minutes
•Souza: 54% takedown defense
•Souza: 9:29 average fight time
•Godinez: 13:21 average fight time
•Souza: 4-3 UFC record
•Godinez: 0-1 UFC record
•Souza: 7 UFC appearances
•Godinez: 1 UFC appearance
•Souza: 2-fight win streak
•Godinez: Coming off a loss

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Loopy Godinez has the output edge.

Who drives it

Loopy Godinez

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Ketlen Souza 4.11/min vs Loopy Godinez 4.43/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 90%Clinch 0%Ground 9%

Ketlen Souza's path

Out-volume Loopy Godinez at distance; 0.45 knockdowns/min if Loopy Godinez walks in.

Loopy Godinez's path

Out-volume Ketlen Souza at distance; 0.07 knockdowns/min if Ketlen Souza walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -0.8Power vs chin edge +12" reach advantage +0.6Opponent style edge -2.4Camp unknown 0

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Ketlen Souza
  • Loopy Godinez

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.