UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III Prediction

Andre Fili
Andre Fili
"Touchy"
25-14
Featherweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score53
Kai Kamaka III
Kai Kamaka III
"Da Fighting Hawaiian"
18-8-1

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Kai Kamaka III
Kai Kamaka III by Decision
Kai Kamaka III 66% to win · Low confidence
Andre Fili
34.5%
Kai Kamaka III
65.5%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Kai Kamaka III holds a significant statistical advantage in striking output and accuracy, creating a persistent pressure that Andre Fili will struggle to match. Given Fili's 36-year age and recent slide, Kamaka's ability to maintain a higher pace will force a decision in his favor."

What Everyone Misses

While fans focus on Fili's reach, his striking accuracy is a poor 38%; Kamaka's 59% accuracy and higher volume allow him to dictate the striking exchanges effectively once he navigates the initial reach gap.

Why FightIQ Likes III

1
Striking

Kai Kamaka III: 5.49 sig strikes/min at 59% accuracy

2
Cardio

Kamaka: 12:05 avg fight time

3
Momentum

Fili: 2-fight losing streak (Vinicius Oliveira, Jose Miguel Delgado)

Expert Breakdown

•Kai Kamaka III: 5.49 sig strikes/min at 59% accuracy
•Andre Fili: 3.89 sig strikes/min at 38% accuracy
•Fili: 0.21 sub attempts/15
•Kamaka: 0.21 sub attempts/15
•Fili: 2.24 takedowns/15, 72% TD defense
•Kamaka: 1.45 takedowns/15, 55% TD defense
•Kamaka: 12:05 avg fight time
•Fili: 10:41 avg fight time
•Fili: 1 KO/TKO loss in recent record
•Kamaka: 1 KO/TKO loss in recent record
•Fili: UFC wins/losses against Christian Rodriguez, Vinicius Oliveira, Jose Miguel Delgado
•Kamaka: UFC wins/losses against D. Hope, M. Lima, Luke Riley
•Fili: 2-fight losing streak (Vinicius Oliveira, Jose Miguel Delgado)
•Kamaka: 1-1 in last two (Win vs D. Hope, Loss vs Luke Riley)

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Kai Kamaka III has the output edge.

Who drives it

Kai Kamaka III

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Andre Fili 3.89/min vs Kai Kamaka III 5.49/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 90%Clinch 1%Ground 9%

Andre Fili's path

Out-volume Kai Kamaka III at distance; 0.31 knockdowns/min if Kai Kamaka III walks in.

Kai Kamaka III's path

Out-volume Andre Fili at distance; 0.21 knockdowns/min if Andre Fili walks in.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +1.35" reach advantage +1.5Opponent style edge -2.4Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -1.2

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Andre Fili
  • Kai Kamaka III

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.