UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Alice Pereira vs Daria Zhelezniakova Prediction

Alice Pereira
Alice Pereira
"Golden Girl"
7-1
Women's Bantamweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score65
Daria Zhelezniakova
Daria Zhelezniakova
"Iron Lady"
10-3

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Alice Pereira
Alice Pereira by KO/TKO (R2)
Alice Pereira 50% to win · Low confidence
Alice Pereira
50%
Daria Zhelezniakova
50%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"The win probabilities favor Alice Pereira (50%), and the pick follows the numbers."

What Everyone Misses

Daria Zhelezniakova’s reach disadvantage of three inches combined with her reliance on point-striking makes her highly vulnerable to Pereira’s aggressive, power-first approach inside the pocket, which could stifle Zhelezniakova's ability to maintain her preferred rhythm.

Executive Summary

The win probabilities favor Alice Pereira (50%), and the pick follows the numbers.

Why FightIQ Likes Pereira

1
Striking

Pereira 0.61 knockdowns/15 vs Zhelezniakova 0.0

2
Wrestling

Pereira 75% TD defense

3
Momentum

Pereira win over Hailey Cowan

Expert Breakdown

•Pereira 0.61 knockdowns/15 vs Zhelezniakova 0.0
•Zhelezniakova 4.13 sig/min vs Pereira 2.83
•Pereira 0 submission attempts/15
•Zhelezniakova 0 submission attempts/15
•Pereira 75% TD defense
•Zhelezniakova 50% TD defense
•Pereira avg fight time 12:12
•Zhelezniakova avg fight time 12:13
•Pereira 0 career KO losses
•Zhelezniakova 0 career KO losses
•Pereira wins over Hailey Cowan and Karla Lacerda
•Zhelezniakova wins over Melissa Mullins and Montse Rendon
•Pereira win over Hailey Cowan
•Zhelezniakova loss to Melissa Croden

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Daria Zhelezniakova has the output edge.

Who drives it

Daria Zhelezniakova

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Alice Pereira 2.83/min vs Daria Zhelezniakova 4.13/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%

Alice Pereira's path

Out-volume Daria Zhelezniakova at distance; 0.61 knockdowns/min if Daria Zhelezniakova walks in.

Daria Zhelezniakova's path

Out-volume Alice Pereira at distance; power on the counter if Alice Pereira walks in.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +1.23" reach advantage +0.9Opponent style edge -1.5Camp unknown 0

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Alice Pereira
  • Daria Zhelezniakova

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.