UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Donte Johnson vs Baisangur Susurkaev Prediction

Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson
"Lock Jaw"
9-0
Middleweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score70
Baisangur Susurkaev
Baisangur Susurkaev
"The Real Hunter"
12-0

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson by Decision
Donte Johnson 62% to win · Medium confidence
Donte Johnson
62.4%
Baisangur Susurkaev
37.6%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
High

"Donte Johnson rates 8 points higher at 76 and holds a superior, tested takedown defense, which is vital against a prospect like Susurkaev. While Susurkaev has impressive finishing numbers, his UFC-level data is less tested than Johnson's competitive track record against names like Cody Brundage and Sedriques Dumas."

What Everyone Misses

The massive disparity in physical stature. Susurkaev is 6'2" with a 79" reach compared to Johnson's 5'8" and 74" reach, meaning Johnson must navigate a 6-inch height deficit against an opponent who will likely use his length to force exchanges that favor his own reach advantage.

FightIQ Blog

Donte Johnson vs Baisangur Susurkaev Prediction and Pick

Donte Johnson remains undefeated by outlasting Baisangur Susurkaev over 3 rounds to secure a decision victory at UFC 334. The battle of undefeated prospects sees Johnson utilize his well rounded skill set to maintain control.

Why FightIQ Likes Johnson

1
Wrestling

Johnson: 100% TD accuracy and 75% TD defense

2
Cardio

Johnson average fight time: 7:30

3
Experience

Johnson: Wins over Cody Brundage, Sedriques Dumas, Eric McConico

Expert Breakdown

•Susurkaev: 5.97 sig strikes/min vs 0.54 accuracy
•Johnson: 3.11 sig strikes/min vs 0.48 accuracy
•Johnson: 0.67 sub attempts/15
•Susurkaev: 0.91 sub attempts/15
•Johnson: 100% TD accuracy and 75% TD defense
•Susurkaev: 2.28 takedowns/15 but only 26% TD accuracy
•Johnson average fight time: 7:30
•Susurkaev average fight time: Not enough UFC data
•Johnson: 0 KO/TKO losses
•Susurkaev: 0 KO/TKO losses
•Johnson: Wins over Cody Brundage, Sedriques Dumas, Eric McConico
•Susurkaev: Wins over Djorden Santos, Eric McConico, Eric Nolan
•Johnson: 3-fight UFC win streak
•Susurkaev: 4-fight win streak dating to 2019

How This Fight Plays Out

Donte Johnson imposes the takedown and grinds Baisangur Susurkaev out on the mat.

Who drives it

Donte Johnson

Hinge stat

Baisangur Susurkaev's takedown defense

1%: 1% TDD is porous, Donte Johnson will plant Baisangur Susurkaev on the mat

Projected location

Distance 49%Clinch 12%Ground 40%

Donte Johnson's path

Shoot behind 2 takedowns/15 at 100% accuracy vs Baisangur Susurkaev's 1% TDD. Once it sticks, control the top and ride out rounds.

Baisangur Susurkaev's path

Defend Donte Johnson's entries; if you sprawl, 5.97 strikes/min and your power decide it on the feet. But the TDD is a real liability, one lazy sprawl and you're on your back for a round.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +4.4Power vs chin edge +0.55" reach disadvantage -1.5Southpaw vs orthodox +0.8Style matchup edge +1.6Camp unknown 0

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Donte Johnson
  • Baisangur Susurkaev

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.