UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott Prediction

Deiveson Figueiredo
Deiveson Figueiredo
22-8-1
Bantamweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score63
Payton Talbott
Payton Talbott
11-1

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Payton Talbott
Payton Talbott by Decision
Payton Talbott 80% to win · Medium confidence
Deiveson Figueiredo
79.8%
Payton Talbott
20.2%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Low

"Payton Talbott is the younger, more active athlete with significant striking volume advantages and superior defensive metrics. Deiveson Figueiredo is in a clear physical decline, demonstrated by a four-fight losing streak and recurring struggles with submission defense."

What Everyone Misses

Casual observers focus on Figueiredo's historical pedigree, but his recent back-to-back submission losses indicate a catastrophic decline in his ability to defend on the mat, which Talbott can exploit if he initiates top control.

Why FightIQ Likes Talbott

1
Grappling

Figueiredo 1.2 sub attempts/15 vs Talbott 0.2 sub attempts/15

2
Experience

Figueiredo 27 UFC fights

Expert Breakdown

•Talbott 6.62 sig strikes/min vs Figueiredo 2.63 sig strikes/min
•Talbott 57% accuracy vs Figueiredo 53% accuracy
•Figueiredo 1.2 sub attempts/15 vs Talbott 0.2 sub attempts/15
•Figueiredo has suffered consecutive submission losses to Song Yadong and Umar Nurmagomedov
•Talbott 78% TD defense
•Figueiredo 35% TD accuracy
•Talbott 10:57 average fight time
•Figueiredo age 38, visibly slowing in third rounds
•Figueiredo KO loss rate 11%
•Talbott has never been finished by KO
•Figueiredo 27 UFC fights
•Talbott 7 UFC fights
•Talbott 2-fight winning streak
•Figueiredo 4-fight losing streak

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Payton Talbott has the output edge.

Who drives it

Payton Talbott

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Deiveson Figueiredo 2.63/min vs Payton Talbott 6.62/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 90%Clinch 0%Ground 10%

Deiveson Figueiredo's path

Out-volume Payton Talbott at distance; power on the counter if Payton Talbott walks in.

Payton Talbott's path

Out-volume Deiveson Figueiredo at distance; 0.59 knockdowns/min if Deiveson Figueiredo walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -0.9Opponent power vs chin edge -0.72" reach disadvantage -0.8Opponent style edge -2.1Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -1.8Ring rust edge +0.3

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD DefenseFinish Rate
  • Deiveson Figueiredo
  • Payton Talbott