UFC 330

Kauê Fernandes vs Jalin Turner Prediction

Kauê Fernandes
Kauê Fernandes
"0"
8-2
Lightweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score75
Jalin Turner
Jalin Turner
"The Tarantula"
15-9

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Kauê Fernandes
Kauê Fernandes by Submission (R1)
Kauê Fernandes 25% to win · Low confidence
Kauê Fernandes
25%
Jalin Turner
75%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Jalin Turner holds a massive experience and output advantage over the relatively unproven Kauê Fernandes. Turner's ability to maintain high striking volume and his proven durability against UFC-caliber opponents make him the overwhelming favorite in this matchup."

What Everyone Misses

Kauê Fernandes has extremely limited data against high-level strikers, whereas Jalin Turner’s reach and Southpaw stance will likely prevent Fernandes from ever closing the distance to utilize his grappling threat.

Executive Summary

Jalin Turner holds a massive experience and output advantage over the relatively unproven Kauê Fernandes. Turner's ability to maintain high striking volume and his proven durability against UFC-caliber opponents make him the overwhelming favorite in this matchup.

Why FightIQ Likes Turner

1
Striking

Jalin Turner lands 5.79 sig strikes per minute

2
Grappling

Turner averages 1.06 sub attempts per 15 minutes

3
Wrestling

Turner exhibits 75% takedown defense against UFC level competition

Expert Breakdown

•Jalin Turner lands 5.79 sig strikes per minute
•Kauê Fernandes lands only 0.41 sig strikes per minute
•Turner maintains a higher strike defense at 42% vs 29%
•Turner averages 1.06 sub attempts per 15 minutes
•Fernandes has recorded zero UFC takedown data
•Turner maintains a 75% takedown defense rate
•Turner exhibits 75% takedown defense against UFC level competition
•Fernandes has no recorded takedown data in the UFC
•Turner averages 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes
•Turner has extensive experience in high-output fights
•Average fight time reflects Turner's ability to handle longer engagements
•Turner has faced lethal strikers including Edson Barboza and Ignacio Bahamondes
•Fernandes remains relatively untested against elite finishing power
•Turner has 16 UFC bouts including wins over Edson Barboza and King Green
•Fernandes has significantly less cage time against elite competition
•Turner's recent results include a win over Edson Barboza
•Turner has experienced setbacks against Ignacio Bahamondes and Renato Moicano

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Jalin Turner has the output edge.

Who drives it

Jalin Turner

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Kauê Fernandes 4.28/min vs Jalin Turner 5.79/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 93%Clinch 0%Ground 7%

Kauê Fernandes's path

Out-volume Jalin Turner at distance; 1 knockdowns/min if Jalin Turner walks in.

Jalin Turner's path

Out-volume Kauê Fernandes at distance; 1.51 knockdowns/min if Kauê Fernandes walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -2.2Opponent power vs chin edge -0.65" reach disadvantage -1.5Opponent southpaw edge -0.8Opponent style edge -2.2Opponent ring rust edge -1.4

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Kauê Fernandes
  • Jalin Turner

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.