Noche UFC

Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott Prediction

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Edgar Chairez
Edgar Chairez by Submission (R1)
Edgar Chairez 56% to win · High confidence
Edgar Chairez
55.7%
Tim Elliott
44.3%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
High
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Edgar Chairez holds the edge in finishing momentum and youth against a noticeably declining Tim Elliott. While Elliott provides the more proven stylistic test, his 39-year-old frame and inconsistent takedown efficiency against Chairez’s opportunistic submission game favor the Mexican prospect."

What Everyone Misses

Tim Elliott’s reliance on the 'scramble-heavy' wrestling style is becoming a liability as he ages, specifically because his 25% takedown accuracy frequently leaves him out of position and prone to front-headlock submissions against younger, fresher grapplers.

Why FightIQ Likes Chairez

1
Striking

Chairez: 3.76 sig str/min at 46% accuracy

2
Grappling

Chairez: 1.44 sub attempts/15 min

3
Durability

Chairez: 0 KO losses

Expert Breakdown

•Chairez: 3.76 sig str/min at 46% accuracy
•Elliott: 3.51 sig str/min at 43% accuracy
•Chairez: 1.44 sub attempts/15 min
•Elliott: 1.06 sub attempts/15 min
•Elliott: 3.61 takedowns/15 min, 25% accuracy
•Chairez: 0 takedowns/15 min, 48% TD defense
•Elliott: 12:16 avg fight time
•Chairez: 9:06 avg fight time
•Chairez: 0 KO losses
•Elliott: 1 KO loss
•Elliott: Fought Steve Erceg, Muhammad Mokaev, and Tagir Ulanbekov
•Chairez: Fought Joshua Van, Tatsuro Taira, and CJ Vergara
•Chairez: 3-fight win streak
•Elliott: Lost 2 of last 3

How This Fight Plays Out

Even on paper, the fighter who enforces their range wins.

Who drives it

Even

Hinge stat

mixed

—: balanced matchup, location depends on who imposes their game first

Projected location

Distance 63%Clinch 5%Ground 32%

Edgar Chairez's path

Impose Submission Grappler; mix levels based on Tim Elliott's weaknesses.

Tim Elliott's path

Impose Chain Wrestler; mix levels based on Edgar Chairez's weaknesses.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -2.95" reach advantage +1.5Opponent southpaw edge -0.8Momentum edge +0.3Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +0.9

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Edgar Chairez
  • Tim Elliott

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.