Noche UFC

Djorden Santos vs Yousri Belgaroui Prediction

Djorden Santos
Djorden Santos
"Shakur"
11-3
+585
Odds+446
Middleweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score73
Yousri Belgaroui
Yousri Belgaroui
11-3
-942
Odds-600

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Yousri Belgaroui
Yousri Belgaroui by KO/TKO (R1)
Yousri Belgaroui 92% to win · Low confidence
Djorden Santos
1%
Yousri Belgaroui
99%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Yousri Belgaroui brings a significant striking accuracy and power advantage, evidenced by his 8 KOs and high-level Dutch kickboxing pedigree. While Djorden Santos has solid takedown defense, Belgaroui's momentum and finishing capability in recent UFC-relevant bouts make him the clear favorite to dictate the terms."

What Everyone Misses

Belgaroui's background in elite kickboxing allows him to manage distance effectively against Santos's high-volume, low-power output, rendering Santos's primary statistical edge (striking volume) ineffective as he will be forced to fight at Belgaroui's range.

Why FightIQ Likes Belgaroui

1
Striking

Belgaroui: 64% accuracy vs Santos: 43% accuracy

2
Experience

Santos: 1-2 UFC, losses to Baisangur Susurkaev and Ozzy Diaz

3
Momentum

Belgaroui: 5-fight win streak

Expert Breakdown

•Belgaroui: 64% accuracy vs Santos: 43% accuracy
•Belgaroui: 0.86 knockdowns/15 vs Santos: 0 knockdowns/15
•Neither fighter shows significant sub-attempt volume
•Santos has no recorded control time in available samples
•Santos: 85% TD defense vs Belgaroui: 67% TD defense
•Both fighters show low offensive output (Santos: 0.51, Belgaroui: 0.29)
•Both fighters have experience in 5-round fights
•Belgaroui's aggressive pace often ends fights before the deep waters
•Santos has no KO losses in 14 fights
•Belgaroui has no KO losses in 13 fights
•Santos: 1-2 UFC, losses to Baisangur Susurkaev and Ozzy Diaz
•Belgaroui: 2-0 UFC, wins over Mansur Abdul-Malik and Azamat Bekoev
•Belgaroui: 5-fight win streak
•Santos: 0-fight win streak (coming off a loss)

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Djorden Santos has the output edge.

Who drives it

Djorden Santos

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Djorden Santos 6.64/min vs Yousri Belgaroui 6.1/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%

Djorden Santos's path

Out-volume Yousri Belgaroui at distance; power on the counter if Yousri Belgaroui walks in.

Yousri Belgaroui's path

Out-volume Djorden Santos at distance; 0.86 knockdowns/min if Djorden Santos walks in.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +1.2Opponent power vs chin edge -0.53" reach disadvantage -1.1Opponent momentum edge -0.7Style matchup edge +2.3Camp pedigree edge +0.2Age/decline edge +0.6

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD DefenseFinish Rate
  • Djorden Santos
  • Yousri Belgaroui