Crypto.com UFC 331

Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain Prediction

Marlon Vera
"Chito"
23-12-1
+180
Bantamweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score67
Charles Jourdain
"Air"
18-8-1
-220

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Charles Jourdain
Charles Jourdain by Decision
Charles Jourdain 47% to win · Medium confidence
Marlon Vera
52.8%
Charles Jourdain
47.2%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Medium
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Low

"Charles Jourdain enters with superior striking volume and the current momentum to out-pace a fading Marlon Vera. While Vera is durable, he has struggled to initiate offense in recent outings, allowing Jourdain to dictate the fight's tempo and output over three rounds."

What Everyone Misses

Jourdain's transition to Bantamweight has unlocked a level of physical parity he lacked at Featherweight, specifically in his ability to maintain his grappling guillotine threat against more stationary targets like Kyler Phillips and Victor Henry.

Why FightIQ Likes Jourdain

1
Striking

Jourdain averages 5.36 sig strikes/min vs Vera's 4.18

2
Grappling

Jourdain has 3 recent submission wins (Grant, Henry, Ramos)

3
Cardio

Jourdain maintained high output against Kyler Phillips

Expert Breakdown

•Jourdain averages 5.36 sig strikes/min vs Vera's 4.18
•Jourdain maintains 49% accuracy and 56% defense
•Jourdain has 3 recent submission wins (Grant, Henry, Ramos)
•Vera has not recorded a submission victory in his recent stretch
•Vera has 71% takedown defense
•Jourdain has 46% takedown defense
•Jourdain maintained high output against Kyler Phillips
•Vera struggled to ramp up volume in late rounds vs Sean O'Malley and Cory Sandhagen
•Vera has never been stopped by strikes in 35 professional fights
•Jourdain has one TKO loss to Jean Silva
•Vera has faced Sean O'Malley, Cory Sandhagen, and Deiveson Figueiredo
•Jourdain has faced Kyler Phillips, Davey Grant, and Jean Silva
•Jourdain is on a 3-fight win streak
•Vera has lost 4 consecutive fights

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Charles Jourdain has the output edge.

Who drives it

Charles Jourdain

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Marlon Vera 4.18/min vs Charles Jourdain 5.36/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 91%Clinch 0%Ground 9%

Marlon Vera's path

Out-volume Charles Jourdain at distance; 11 knockdowns/min if Charles Jourdain walks in.

Charles Jourdain's path

Out-volume Marlon Vera at distance; 7 knockdowns/min if Marlon Vera walks in.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +1.7Opponent style edge -2.2Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -0.9

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Marlon Vera
  • Charles Jourdain

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.