Crypto.com UFC 331

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira Prediction

Edmen Shahbazyan
"The Golden Boy"
16-6
-160
Middleweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score76
Brunno Ferreira
"The Hulk"
15-4
+135

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Edmen Shahbazyan
Edmen Shahbazyan by KO/TKO (R1)
Edmen Shahbazyan 53% to win · Low confidence (coin flip)
Edmen Shahbazyan
52.5%
Brunno Ferreira
47.5%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Coin Flip
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"The rating gap is only 2 points, this is a toss-up, not a real edge. Confidence is low, this is a coin-flip fight. Edmen Shahbazyan possesses higher striking output and superior defensive metrics compared to the more one-dimensional approach of Brunno Ferreira. While Ferreira has finishing upside in the scrambles, Shahbazyan’s ability to maintain pace and landing consistency gives him the edge in a match expected to stay primarily standing."

What Everyone Misses

The discrepancy in takedown defense efficiency; Shahbazyan stops 66% of shots while Ferreira struggles to neutralize pressure, leaving him vulnerable to being forced into a striking rhythm he cannot maintain.

Executive Summary

Edmen Shahbazyan possesses higher striking output and superior defensive metrics compared to the more one-dimensional approach of Brunno Ferreira. While Ferreira has finishing upside in the scrambles, Shahbazyan’s ability to maintain pace and landing consistency gives him the edge in a match expected to stay primarily standing.

Why FightIQ Likes Shahbazyan

1
Striking

Shahbazyan lands 4.06 sig-strikes/min at 48% accuracy

2
Wrestling

Shahbazyan 66% TD defense vs Ferreira 50%

3
Experience

Shahbazyan has faced Brendan Allen, Andre Muniz, and Gerald Meerschaert

Expert Breakdown

•Shahbazyan lands 4.06 sig-strikes/min at 48% accuracy
•Ferreira averages 3.27 sig-strikes/min at 49% accuracy
•Shahbazyan has 8 career knockdowns vs Ferreira's 4
•Ferreira averages 0.6 sub-attempts/15 vs Shahbazyan's 0.4
•Both fighters show vulnerability to submissions in high-level grappling exchanges
•Shahbazyan 66% TD defense vs Ferreira 50%
•Shahbazyan averages 1.43 TD/15 vs Ferreira's 1.0
•Shahbazyan has logged multiple full three-round decisions against Andre Petroski and Brendan Allen
•Ferreira has also gone the distance against Ikram Aliskerov and Marvin Vettori
•Shahbazyan has 3 KO losses against Gerald Meerschaert, Brendan Allen, and Jack Hermansson
•Ferreira has 2 KO losses including one against Gregory Rodrigues
•Shahbazyan has faced Brendan Allen, Andre Muniz, and Gerald Meerschaert
•Ferreira has faced Ikram Aliskerov, Gregory Rodrigues, and Marvin Vettori
•Shahbazyan went 1-1 in his last two fights, beating Andre Muniz but falling to Brendan Allen
•Ferreira went 1-1 in his last two, winning against Marvin Vettori but losing to Ikram Aliskerov

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Edmen Shahbazyan has the output edge.

Who drives it

Edmen Shahbazyan

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Edmen Shahbazyan 4.06/min vs Brunno Ferreira 3.27/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 90%Clinch 0%Ground 10%

Edmen Shahbazyan's path

Out-volume Brunno Ferreira at distance; 8 knockdowns/min if Brunno Ferreira walks in.

Brunno Ferreira's path

Out-volume Edmen Shahbazyan at distance; 4 knockdowns/min if Edmen Shahbazyan walks in.

What moved the number

Wrestling vs TDD edge +1.32" reach advantage +0.6Style matchup edge +2.2Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +0.3

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Edmen Shahbazyan
  • Brunno Ferreira

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.

Edmen Shahbazyan
Brunno Ferreira