Crypto.com UFC 331

Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura Prediction

Casey O'Neill
"King"
11-2
-205
Women's Flyweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score70
Eduarda Moura
"Ronda"
12-2
+170

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Casey O'Neill
Casey O'Neill by Decision
Casey O'Neill 92% to win · Low confidence (coin flip)
Casey O'Neill
92.9%
Eduarda Moura
7.1%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Coin Flip
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"The rating gap is only 2 points, this is a toss-up, not a real edge. Confidence is low, this is a coin-flip fight. Casey O'Neill significantly outclasses Eduarda Moura in striking volume and pace, holding a massive 7.89 to 2.57 significant strikes per minute advantage. While Moura offers a wrestling threat, O'Neill's 70% takedown defense and superior durability under pressure should allow her to keep the fight standing and dictate the terms."

What Everyone Misses

The massive disparity in strike output; O'Neill operates at a high-volume pace that forces opponents to expend energy just to survive, whereas Moura has struggled to clear 3.0 strikes per minute in recent UFC outings against Cong Wang and Lauren Murphy.

Executive Summary

Casey O'Neill significantly outclasses Eduarda Moura in striking volume and pace, holding a massive 7.89 to 2.57 significant strikes per minute advantage. While Moura offers a wrestling threat, O'Neill's 70% takedown defense and superior durability under pressure should allow her to keep the fight standing and dictate the terms.

Why FightIQ Likes O'Neill

1
Striking

O'Neill: 7.89 sig-strikes/min (52% accuracy)

2
Grappling

Moura: 0.4 sub-attempts/15

3
Cardio

O'Neill: High-pace constant pressure style

Expert Breakdown

•O'Neill: 7.89 sig-strikes/min (52% accuracy)
•Moura: 2.57 sig-strikes/min (37% accuracy)
•Moura: 0.4 sub-attempts/15
•O'Neill: 0.7 sub-attempts/15
•Moura: 3.58 takedowns/15
•O'Neill: 70% TD defense
•O'Neill: High-pace constant pressure style
•Moura: Often slows in final rounds
•O'Neill: 1 loss via submission, 1 via decision
•Moura: 2 losses via decision
•O'Neill: Wins over Shevchenko, Modafferi
•Moura: Wins over Murphy, Hardy
•O'Neill: 2-fight win streak
•Moura: Lost most recent fight

How This Fight Plays Out

Casey O'Neill edges it on the feet; Eduarda Moura needs the takedown to flip the script.

Who drives it

Casey O'Neill

Hinge stat

Casey O'Neill's takedown defense

70%: 70% TDD is high; Eduarda Moura can still grind but the edge tilts to Casey O'Neill

Projected location

Distance 77%Clinch 7%Ground 16%

Casey O'Neill's path

Defend Eduarda Moura's entries; if you sprawl, 7.89 strikes/min and 1 knockdowns/min decide it on the feet.

Eduarda Moura's path

Shoot behind 3.58 takedowns/15 at 34% accuracy vs Casey O'Neill's 70% TDD. The entries will be contested, chain attempts and mix in fence wrestling; if it stays standing you're losing.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -1.52" reach advantage +0.6Style matchup edge +2Camp unknown 0Age/decline edge +0.6

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Casey O'Neill
  • Eduarda Moura

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.

Casey O'Neill
Eduarda Moura