Crypto.com UFC 331

Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski Prediction

Alonzo Menifield
"Atomic"
18-6-1
+200
Light Heavyweight
VS
3 × 5 min rounds
Excitement Score76
Iwo Baraniewski
"Rudy"
9-0
-245

Betting Odds

Odds not posted yet

FightIQ Verdict

FightIQ Lean
Iwo Baraniewski
Iwo Baraniewski by KO/TKO (R1)
Iwo Baraniewski 92% to win · Low confidence
Alonzo Menifield
7.1%
Iwo Baraniewski
92.9%
Confidence
Model certainty, not win likelihood
Low
Upset Potential
How live is the underdog?
Medium

"Iwo Baraniewski is an explosive, high-output striker with a 100% finishing rate who is currently overwhelming the division. While Alonzo Menifield brings the seasoning of veteran UFC bouts, his recent history of being knocked out early makes him a high-risk liability against a power-puncher like Baraniewski."

What Everyone Misses

Everyone focuses on Menifield's veteran experience, but misses that his defensive stats (51% striking defense) have consistently failed him against power strikers like Carlos Ulberg and Azamat Murzakanov; against a fighter with Baraniewski's 11.35 significant strikes per minute, this is a dangerous stylistic mismatch.

Why FightIQ Likes Baraniewski

1
Striking

Baraniewski: 11.35 sig-strikes/min, 57% accuracy

2
Cardio

Baraniewski: 6 consecutive first-round finishes

3
Durability

Menifield: 4 KO losses in UFC

Expert Breakdown

•Baraniewski: 11.35 sig-strikes/min, 57% accuracy
•Menifield: 3.84 sig-strikes/min, 53% accuracy
•Baraniewski: 0 sub attempts/15
•Menifield: 0.2 sub attempts/15
•Baraniewski: 100% TD defense
•Menifield: 0.48 TD/15, 78% TD defense
•Baraniewski: 6 consecutive first-round finishes
•Menifield: Primarily relies on early explosions
•Menifield: 4 KO losses in UFC
•Baraniewski: 0 losses, high durability shown
•Menifield: Faced Volkan Oezdemir, Carlos Ulberg, Azamat Murzakanov
•Baraniewski: Faced Junior Tafa, Austen Lane, Ibo Aslan
•Baraniewski: 9-0 record, 3-0 in UFC
•Menifield: 1-1 in last 2, loss to Volkan Oezdemir

How This Fight Plays Out

Kickboxing match, Iwo Baraniewski has the output edge.

Who drives it

Iwo Baraniewski

Hinge stat

who lands first / volume vs power

Alonzo Menifield 3.84/min vs Iwo Baraniewski 11.35/min: pure striking affair, output and chin decide it

Projected location

Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%

Alonzo Menifield's path

Out-volume Iwo Baraniewski at distance; 7 knockdowns/min if Iwo Baraniewski walks in.

Iwo Baraniewski's path

Out-volume Alonzo Menifield at distance; 5 knockdowns/min if Alonzo Menifield walks in.

What moved the number

Opponent wrestling edge -0.63" reach advantage +0.9Opponent momentum edge -1Opponent style edge -1.6Camp unknown 0Opponent age/decline edge -1.5

Style Radar

measured edges, side by side
Striking VolumeStriking Acc.TD AccuracyTD Defense
  • Alonzo Menifield
  • Iwo Baraniewski

Not shown (stat missing for a fighter): Finish Rate.