How does FightIQ make its picks?

FightIQ breaks down every fight on the card using publicly available stats and fight history from UFC.com, ESPN, Sherdog and Tapology. That includes newer prospects from Dana White's Contender Series. Each pick comes with a predicted winner, method and round based on how each fighter has actually finished fights.

Does FightIQ cover every fight on the card?

Yes. Every bout is covered, from the early prelims to the main event. A pick is only held back when a fighter's data fails our checks, and it goes up once the data is fixed.

How do you predict a UFC fight?

Start with how each fighter wins and loses. Compare striking volume and accuracy, takedown offense against takedown defense, finishing rate, cardio over three or five rounds, and quality of past opponents. Then look at the style matchup, because a great wrestler facing weak takedown defense matters more than either fighter's overall record.

How accurate are UFC predictions?

Betting favorites win roughly two out of three UFC fights, so any model worth following needs to beat that mark or find value on underdogs. No one predicts MMA perfectly. Small gloves and many ways to win make it one of the most unpredictable sports there is.

Blog·UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling

Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev Prediction

Welterweight· November 21, 2026

The Pick

Winner Tahir AbdullayevMethod DecisionRound Distance57%Medium

Tahir Abdullayev will secure a decision victory against Jake Matthews in a competitive welterweight contest. This battle goes the full 3 rounds as Tahir Abdullayev leans on his grappling and defensive capabilities to earn the win.

The Numbers

FightIQ ratings are not on file for both fighters yet, so their records and recent form carry the read. The model win probability for Tahir Abdullayev stands at 57%, rated Medium confidence.

The Welterweight Clash

The welterweight division features an interesting matchup between 32-year-old Jake Matthews and 29-year-old Tahir Abdullayev. Both fighters enter this contest looking to build momentum after successful initial outings in the UFC. This bout on the UFC Fight Night Prochazka vs Stirling card presents a classic clash of styles between two orthodox competitors.

Keys For Jake Matthews

Jake Matthews brings a deep professional record of 23-8-0 into the octagon. With 3.36 significant strikes per minute and a 44% striking accuracy, he relies on his volume to pressure opponents. He will need to utilize his 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes to force Tahir Abdullayev into uncomfortable positions and test his defensive mettle.

Tahir Abdullayev Path

Tahir Abdullayev enters this fight with an impressive 20-3-0 record. His ability to control the pace through his wrestling is evident in his 2.07 takedowns per 15 minutes. Most notably he has maintained a perfect 100% takedown defense which suggests he is very difficult to control on the canvas.

Where The Fight Decides

The outcome will likely hinge on whether Jake Matthews can penetrate the elite defensive shell of Tahir Abdullayev. If Tahir Abdullayev can neutralize the offensive wrestling attempts of his opponent, he can dictate the flow of the stand up exchanges. This match will be decided by who can successfully impose their wrestling game while defending against the counter attacks of the other.

Our Official Prediction

We anticipate a closely contested fight that lasts the distance. Tahir Abdullayev will emerge as the winner by way of a decision. His defensive perfection combined with his own wrestling output will be the difference maker in this fight.

See the full FightIQ breakdown for this fight

Weekly Newsletter

Get FightIQ picks in your inbox every week

Blog breakdowns and cashed slips, sent every Thursday morning.